severity analysis risk frameworks

Scope of historic analysis

FromToExposure

Events counted: All operations

Part 121Scheduled airlinesPart 125Large private aircraftPart 129Foreign air carriersPart 135Commuter and on-demandPart 133Rotorcraft external loadPart 137Agricultural aircraftPart 91General operating rules, including 91KPart 61 / 141Flight instructionPart 105Parachute jumpingPart 103UltralightsPart 107Small unmanned aircraftPart 437Experimental spaceflightOther or unspecifiedPublic use, military and events with no part recorded

The switches start out matching the exposure you selected. Turn any operating part on or off to add or remove its incidents and accidents from the counts.

Include incident rate estimateOnly NTSB-investigated events record a cause, so FAA incident reports never reach the risk results on their own. With this on, the historic risk adds an estimate of those incidents using the recorded ratio of incidents to accidents, spread across severity levels the way all determinable incidents in the period were.

Severity analysis framework — this page will be developed in the next step. It will let you analyze how severity outcomes are distributed and how different severity definitions affect risk results.