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Standardized framework

occurrence analysis risk frameworks

Scope of historic analysis

Events counted: All operations

The switches start out matching the exposure you selected. Turn any operating part on or off to add or remove its incidents and accidents from the counts.

Frameworks shownThese switches only control visibility — every framework keeps calculating.

Historic risk

This is the historic risk of the selected occurrence over the period of exposure you selected, with every hazard cited in its probable cause shown as a separate branch.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Occurrence sourceSelect occurrence citations
■ expected value■ historic observation■ probability■ label

Choose one or more occurrence types on the occurrence citations page. The framework then counts how often they were cited in 2008-2025, which hazards were cited in the probable cause of those events, and how those events turned out.

Hazards — Category
Occurrence
Outcome
Occurrence risk
Hazards
0.000
Occurrence (o)
0
0.000
Level 1
25%
0.000
Level 2
25%
0.000
Level 3
25%
0.000
Level 4
25%
0
Level 1 per flight hours
0
Level 2 per flight hours
0
Level 3 per flight hours
0
Level 4 per flight hours

Baseline risk

This is the occurrence risk expected in the future over some time horizon if no changes are made. It inherits the historic probabilities and lets you set the risk horizon.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Occurrence sourceSelect occurrence citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

Choose one or more occurrence types on the occurrence citations page. The framework then counts how often they were cited in 2008-2025, which hazards were cited in the probable cause of those events, and how those events turned out.

Hazards — Category
Occurrence
Outcome
Occurrence risk
Hazards
0.000
Occurrence (o)
0
0.000
Level 1
25%
0.000
Level 2
25%
0.000
Level 3
25%
0.000
Level 4
25%
0
Level 1 per flight hours
0
Level 2 per flight hours
0
Level 3 per flight hours
0
Level 4 per flight hours

Initial risk

This is the occurrence risk expected over the same horizon as the baseline risk if a planned change is implemented. The risk horizon is inherited from the baseline risk.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Occurrence sourceSelect occurrence citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

Choose one or more occurrence types on the occurrence citations page. The framework then counts how often they were cited in 2008-2025, which hazards were cited in the probable cause of those events, and how those events turned out.

Hazards — Category
Occurrence
Outcome
Occurrence risk
Hazards
0.000
Occurrence (o)
0
0.000
Level 1
25%
0.000
Level 2
25%
0.000
Level 3
25%
0.000
Level 4
25%
0
Level 1 per flight hours
0
Level 2 per flight hours
0
Level 3 per flight hours
0
Level 4 per flight hours

Residual risk

This is the occurrence risk expected over the same horizon as the baseline risk, accounting for the planned change and any additional mitigation strategies.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Occurrence sourceSelect occurrence citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

Choose one or more occurrence types on the occurrence citations page. The framework then counts how often they were cited in 2008-2025, which hazards were cited in the probable cause of those events, and how those events turned out.

Hazards — Category
Occurrence
Outcome
Occurrence risk
Hazards
0.000
Occurrence (o)
0
0.000
Level 1
25%
0.000
Level 2
25%
0.000
Level 3
25%
0.000
Level 4
25%
0
Level 1 per flight hours
0
Level 2 per flight hours
0
Level 3 per flight hours
0
Level 4 per flight hours