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Standardized framework

hazard analysis risk frameworks

Scope of historic analysis

Events counted: All operations

The switches start out matching the exposure you selected. Turn any operating part on or off to add or remove its incidents and accidents from the counts.

Frameworks shownThese switches only control visibility — every framework keeps calculating.

Historic risk

This is the historic risk based on data over the period of exposure you selected.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Hazard sourceManual — select hazard citations
■ expected value■ historic observation■ probability■ label

Exposure uses all parts — total flight hours from the exposure data: annual average 0 x 18 years in scope (2008-2025) = 0 — average based on 0 years with reported data.

Exposure
Hazard
Occurrence
Severity
Likelihood
0.000
Flight hours
100%
0%
-10,000
No hazard
100%
5%
9,500
No incident or accident
95%
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s1|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s2|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s3|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s4|o)
0
P(h)·[1-P(o|h)]
1
1-P(h)

Baseline risk

This is the risk expected in the future over some time horizon if no changes are made.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Hazard sourceManual — select hazard citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

The exposure metric is inherited from the historic risk. Edit the risk horizon to project the expected flight hours over the future period you want to assess. Expected hazards and occurrences are both editable: occurrences start from the historic P(o|h) and editing them recalculates P(o|h), while the severity probabilities stay fixed.

Exposure
Hazard
Occurrence
Severity
Likelihood
1,000,000
Flight hours
100%
1%
990,000
No hazard
99%
5%
9,500
No incident or accident
95%
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s1|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s2|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s3|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s4|o)
0.0095
P(h)·[1-P(o|h)]
0.99
1-P(h)

Initial risk

This is the risk expected over the same horizon as the baseline risk if a planned change is implemented. The risk horizon is inherited from the baseline risk.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Hazard sourceManual — select hazard citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

The exposure metric is inherited from the historic risk. Edit the risk horizon to project the expected flight hours over the future period you want to assess. Expected hazards and occurrences are both editable: occurrences start from the historic P(o|h) and editing them recalculates P(o|h), while the severity probabilities stay fixed.

Exposure
Hazard
Occurrence
Severity
Likelihood
1,000,000
Flight hours
100%
1%
990,000
No hazard
99%
5%
9,500
No incident or accident
95%
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s1|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s2|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s3|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s4|o)
0.0095
P(h)·[1-P(o|h)]
0.99
1-P(h)

Residual risk

This is the risk expected over the same horizon as the baseline risk, accounting for the planned change and any additional mitigation strategies.

Severity categories4 — Default severity definitions
Hazard sourceManual — select hazard citations
■ expected value■ probability■ label

The exposure metric is inherited from the historic risk. Edit the risk horizon to project the expected flight hours over the future period you want to assess. Expected hazards and occurrences are both editable: occurrences start from the historic P(o|h) and editing them recalculates P(o|h), while the severity probabilities stay fixed.

Exposure
Hazard
Occurrence
Severity
Likelihood
1,000,000
Flight hours
100%
1%
990,000
No hazard
99%
5%
9,500
No incident or accident
95%
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s1|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s2|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s3|o)
0%
0
P(h)·P(o|h)·P(s4|o)
0.0095
P(h)·[1-P(o|h)]
0.99
1-P(h)